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Publication: Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa’s Health Promotion Levy: An observational study
Stacey, N. Edoka, I. Hofman, K. Swart, E.C. Popkin, B. Ng, S.W.
Stacey, N.
Edoka, I.
Hofman, K.
Swart, E.C.
Popkin, B.
Ng, S.W.
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Abstract
Background: In 2016, South Africa announced an intention to levy a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In 2018, the country implemented an SSB tax of approximately 10%, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). We aimed to assess changes in the purchases of beverages before and after the HPL announcement and implementation.
Methods: We used Kantar Europanel data on monthly household purchases between January, 2014, and March, 2019, among a sample of South African households (n=113 653 household-month observations) from all nine provinces to obtain per-capita sugar, calories, and volume from taxable and non-taxable beverages purchased before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. We describe survey-weighted means for each period, and regression-controlled predictions of outcomes and counterfactuals based on pre-HPL announcement trends, with bootstrapped 95% CIs, and stratify results by socioeconomic status.
Findings: Mean sugar from taxable beverage purchases fell from 16·25 g/capita per day (95% CI 15·80-16·70) to 14·26 (13·85-14·67) from the pre-HPL announcement to post-announcement period, and then to 10·63 g/capita per day (10·22-11·04) in the year after implementation. Mean volumes of taxable beverage purchases fell from 518·99 mL/capita per day (506·90-531·08) to 492·16 (481·28-503·04) from pre-announcement to post announcement, and then to 443·39 mL/capita per day (430·10-456·56) after implementation. Across these time periods, there was a small increase in the purchases of non-taxable beverages, from 283·45 mL/capita per day (273·34-293·56) pre-announcement to 312·94 (296·29-329·29) post implementation. When compared with pre-announcement counterfactual trends, reductions in taxable beverage purchase outcomes were significantly larger than the unadjusted survey-weighted observed reductions. Households with lower socioeconomic status purchased larger amounts of taxable beverages in the pre-announcement period than did households with higher socioeconomic status, but demonstrated bigger reductions after the tax was implemented.
Interpretation: The announcement and introduction of South Africa's HPL were followed by reductions in the sugar, calories, and volume of beverage purchases.
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Date
2021-04-08
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Elsevier
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Keywords
Beverages,Consumer behavior,Health Promotion,Taxes,South Africa,SDG-10 Reduced inequalities
Citation
Stacey N, Edoka I, Hofman K, Swart EC, Popkin B, Ng SW. Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2021;5(4):e200-e8. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30304-1.