Recent Submissions
Item Effect of HIV exposure and timing of antiretroviral therapy initiation on immune memory responses to diphtheria, tetanus, whole cell pertussis and hepatitis B vaccines(Taylor & Francis, 2018-11-19)Objectives: We evaluated memory responses and antibody persistence to diphtheria-toxoid, tetanus-toxoid, whole-cell-pertussis (DTwP), and Hepatitis-B vaccines in HIV-unexposed, HIV-exposed-uninfected and HIV-infected children previously randomized to initiate time-limited ART at 6-10 weeks (ART-Immed) or when clinically/immunologically indicated (ART-Def). Methods: All children received DTwP booster at 15-18 months. Antibodies were measured for pertussis-toxoid, filamentous haemagglutinin (FHA), diphtheria-toxoid, tetanus-toxoid, and hepatitis-B prior to booster, 1-2 weeks post-booster and at 24 months of age. Results: Pre-booster antibody GMC were lower in HIV-infected groups than HIV-unexposed children for all epitopes. Post-booster and at 24 months of age, the ART-Def group had lower GMCs and antibody proportion ≥0.1 IU/ml for tetanus-toxoid and diphtheria-toxoid compared to HIV-unexposed children. At 24 months of age, the ART-Immed group had higher GMCs, and more likely to maintain antibody titres ≥1.0 IU/ml to tetanus-toxoid and diphtheria-toxoid compared to HIV-unexposed children. Compared to HIV-unexposed children, at 15 and 24 months of age, persistence of antibody to HBsAg of ≥10 mIU/ml was similar in the ART-Immed group but lower among the ART-Def group. Antibody kinetics indicated more robust memory responses in HIV-exposed-uninfected than HIV-unexposed children to diphtheria-toxoid and wP. Conclusion: HIV-infected children not on ART at primary vaccination had poorer memory responses, whereas HIV-exposed-uninfected children mounted robust memory responses.Item The burden of disease in Greece, health loss, risk factors, and health financing, 2000–16: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(Elsevier, 2018-07-25)Background Following the economic crisis in Greece in 2010, the country's ongoing austerity measures include a substantial contraction of health-care expenditure, with reports of subsequent negative health consequences. A comprehensive evaluation of mortality and morbidity is required to understand the current challenges of public health in Greece. Methods We used the results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 to describe the patterns of death and disability among those living in Greece from 2000 to 2010 (pre-austerity) and 2010 to 2016 (post-austerity), and compared trends in health outcomes and health expenditure to those in Cyprus and western Europe. We estimated all-cause mortality from vital registration data, and we calculated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost. Age-standardised mortality rates were compared using the annualised rate of change (ARC). Mortality risk factors were assessed using a comparative risk assessment framework for 84 risk factors and clusters to calculative summary exposure values and population attributable fraction statistics. We assessed the association between trends in total, government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid public health expenditure and all-cause mortality with a segmented correlation analysis. Findings All-age mortality in Greece increased from 944·5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 923·1–964·5) deaths per 100 000 in 2000 to 997·8 (975·4–1018) in 2010 and 1174·9 (1107·4–1243·2) in 2016, with a higher ARC after 2010 and the introduction of austerity (2·72% [1·65 to 3·74] for 2010–16) than before (0·55% [0·24 to 0·85] for 2000–10) or in western Europe during the same period (0·86% [0·54 to 1·17]). Age-standardised reduction in ARC approximately halved from 2000–10 (−1·61 [95% UI −1·91 to −1·30]) to 2010–16 (−0·87% [–2·03 to 0·20]), with post-2010 ARC similar to that in Cyprus (−0·86% [–1·4 to −0·36]) and lower than in western Europe (−1·14% [–1·48 to −0·81]). Mortality changes in Greece coincided with a rapid decrease in government health expenditure, but also with aggregate population ageing from 2010 to 2016 that was faster than observed in Cyprus. Causes of death that increased were largely those that are responsive to health care. Comparable temporal and age patterns were noted for non-fatal health outcomes, with a somewhat faster rise in years lived with disability since 2010 in Greece compared with Cyprus and western Europe. Risk factor exposures, especially high body-mass index, smoking, and alcohol use, explained much of the mortality increase in Greek adults aged 15–49 years, but only explained a minority of that in adults older than 70 years. Interpretation The findings of increases in total deaths and accelerated population ageing call for specific focus from health policy makers to ensure the health-care system is equipped to meet the needs of the people in Greece.Item Cardiovascular disease profile of the oldest adults in rural South Africa: Data from the HAALSI Study (Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities)(Wiley, 2018-10-13)Objectives To characterize the cardiovascular disease (CVD) profile of individuals aged 80 and older in rural South Africa. Design First wave of population-based longitudinal cohort. Setting Agincourt subdistrict (Mpumalanga Province) in rural South Africa. Participants Adults residents (N = 5,059). Measurements In-person interviews were conducted to obtain social, behavioral, economic, and clinical data. Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, high waist-to-hip ratio, overweight and obesity, high-risk high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, smoking, stroke, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and heart failure in individuals younger than 65, aged 65 to 79, and aged 80 and older were compared. Associations between self-reported treatments and determinants of hypertension treatment in those aged 80 and older were assessed using multivariable regression. Results Of 5,059 individuals included, 549 (10.8%) were aged 80 and older, and their CVD prevalence was 17.9% (stroke 3.8%, myocardial infarction 0.5%, angina pectoris 13.5%, heart failure 0.7%). Hypertension prevalence in this group was 73.8%, and along with angina pectoris, it increased with age (p<.001), whereas overweight and obesity (46.4%), dyslipidemia (39.1%), and smoking prevalences (3.1%) decreased (p<.001). Hypertension treatment was significantly associated with being aged 80 and older (odds ratio (OR)=1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.14–1.92, p=.003). Male sex (OR=0.73, 95% CI=0.66–0.88, p=.001), being an immigrant (OR=0.80, 95% CI=0.65–0.98; p=.03), higher socioeconomic status (OR=1.28, 95% CI=1.06–1.53, p=.009), and higher depression score (OR=1.12, 95% CI=1.05–1.19, p<.001) were associated with hypertension treatment in those aged 80 and older. Conclusion This is the first study to characterize the CVD profile of individuals aged 80 and older in sub-Saharan Africa and provides baseline data for comparison with future studies in this rapidly growing age group. J Am Geriatr Soc 66:2151–2157, 2018.Item Implications of scaling up cardiovascular disease treatment in South Africa: A microsimulation and cost-effectiveness analysis(Elsevier, 2018-12-06)Background: Cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors-particularly hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and diabetes-have become an increasing concern for middle-income countries. Using newly available, nationally representative data, we assessed how cardiovascular risk factors are distributed across subpopulations within South Africa and identified which cardiovascular treatments should be prioritised. Methods: We created a demographically representative simulated population for South Africa and used data from 17 743 respondents aged 15 years or older of the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (SANHANES) to assign information on cardiovascular risk factors to each member of the simulated population. We created a microsimulation model to estimate the health and economic implications of two globally recognised treatment recommendations: WHO's package of essential non-communicable disease interventions (PEN) and South Africa's Primary Care 101 (SA PC 101) guidelines. The primary outcome was total disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted through treatment of all cardiovascular disease or microvascular type 2 diabetes complications per 1000 population. We compared outcomes at the aspirational level of achieving access to treatment among 70% of the population. Findings: Based on the SANHANES data, South Africans had a high prevalence of hypertension (24·8%), dyslipidaemia (17·5%), and diabetes (15·3%). Prevalence was disproportionately high and treatment low among male, black, and poor populations. Our simulated population experienced a burden of 40·0 DALYs (95% CI 29·5-52·0) per 1000 population per year from cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes complications at current treatment levels, which lowered to 32·9 DALYs (24·4-44·7) under WHO PEN implementation and to 32·5 (24·4-44·8) under SA PC 101 implementation. Under both guidelines, there were increases in blood pressure treatment (4·2 percentage points under WHO PEN vs 12·6 percentage points under SA PC 101), lipid treatment (16·0 vs 14·9), and glucose control medications (1·2 vs 0·6). The incremental cost-effectiveness of implementing SA PC 101 over current treatment would be a saving of US$24 902 (95% CI 14 666-62 579) per DALY averted compared with a saving of $17 587 (1840-42 589) under WHO PEN guidelines. Interpretation: Cardiovascular risk factors are common and disproportionate among disadvantaged populations in South Africa. Treatment with blood pressure agents and statins might need greater prioritisation than blood glucose therapies, which contrasts with observed treatment levels despite a lower monthly cost of blood pressure or statin treatment than of sulfonylurea or insulin treatment.
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